GEMALTO

ATOS OFFERS €46/SHARE: CLOSING +40.30%

The board of Gemalto has noted announcement yesterday evening of unsolicited and conditional proposal by Atos to make a cash offer for all issued and outstanding shares of the company at offer price of EUR 46/sh (cum dividend in cash), company says in a statement on Tuesday. On Nov. 28, Atos submitted proposal, valid until…

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EDF: BUY

DEEP VALUE WITH ATOMIC UPSIDE

EDF break up talk in French press. Similar to RWE/IGY ” scenario has been circulating for many months separating EDF’s nuclear activities from the rest of the group, namely renewable energies, energy services and 27 million customers. Without going as far as a dismantling that would raise a sling of trade unions, the idea is…

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MINERS: WHERE DO THEY GO FROM HERE?

CLOSING SHORT MINERS

The dollar has rallied and china tightened as we expected but commodities and miners don’t care. So it is time to step aside. Closing RIO +0.65%. AAL -0.76%   MINERS: WHERE DO THEY GO FROM HERE? SHORTING RIO & AAL Wednesday • 18th October 2017 • 15:54 Sector +25% since mid June. Number of drivers;…

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TIME TO BUY TELCOS?

BUY A BASKET OF INCUMBANTS: VOD/TEF/ORA/KPN/DT

SXKP is the second worst performing sector -5% YTD, and -12% relative to the ESTX. Since the start of 2016 its almost 30% underperformance, and that during a period of yield compression that has benefitted other yielding sectors. Why have the telcos been so poor? Competition is intense so growth is hard to come by,…

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MICHELIN

CLOSING TRADING SELL + 2.87% ABS +3.07% REL

Numbers tonight and I think they will be ok. This was a trading sell and I don’t need the earnings risk. May look to re short tomorrow post numbers but for now we step aside and book a small profit.   MICHELIN TRADING SELL Thursday • 28th September 2017 • 16:08 Despite recently cutting EBIT…

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EEM US

TRADING SHORT

Last night was a mildly hawkish surprise from the FED. Certainly judging by the bond market recently, the hurricanes and recent poor inflation prints had dampened expectations for December. December is in play, and you get the feeling the FED want to continue normalising while they still can, and why not whilst the US is…

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CLOSING SHORT MEDIASET

MUSCLE SHOW IS OVER. +31.40% abs +24.41% rel

The bid hasn’t come to fruition and the announcement that the shares will be placed into a trust denote that VIV wants TI more than MS. In the meantime the market has been left to deal with the decline in OTT TV and numerous warnings elsewhere in the space, allowing MS to reconnect with fundamentals….

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NEXT

TRADING SELL: +12% OVERDONE??

Small beat, but +20% on a 1% increase in PBT guidance since the bottom and +12% today. I understand the positives of the buyback and trading being better. Decent SI has also helped the rally today. They had a relevance problem, which they have cleaned up, that is what they are in control of. HOWEVER…

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LONG TELCOS vs SHORT INDUSTRIALS

22% UNDERPERFORMANCE

This trade has not worked from day one. There are still telco’s we like stand alone and there is still great value and stories in the sector. VOD/TIT & DTE but we step aside on this spread trade and lick our wounds. Have a good day. Closing for -14.60% abs.   LONG TELCOS vs SHORT…

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BUY RWE

CLOSING RWE: +57.96%

We initiated on RWE as a cheap way into Innogy. RWE’s valuation is highly dependent on its Innogy stake When we initiated it accounted for over 200% of RWE’s market cap. Now it only accounts for 120%. Recent out-performance has come from that discount reducing as people saw value and the recent bid noise around…

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