CLOSING LONG NESTLE +13.45% & SHORTING UNILEVER

On a sector and macro level we would be short food and bev and have held that view in Q1. Nestle was an exception on the long side due to extreme underweight positioning and the new CEO enacting portfolio change. However to move the dial in a mega cap like Nestle is no easy task,…

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BOUYGUES: FULL-YEAR 2016 RESULTS

ALL TARGETS FOR 2016 WERE MET OR EXCEEDED

Strong commercial momentum in the construction businesses and at Bouygues Telecom. Significant increase in the group’s current operating margin (+0.6 points). Net debt of €1.9 billion, down €695 million year-on-year. Continued improvement in the group’s profitability in 2017. STRONG SET OF NUMBERS FOR US. CONSTRUCTION AND TELCO REALLY FIRING AND NET DEBT MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTATIONS AND…

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LONG BOUYGUES

GREAT VALUE WITH CATALYSTS

Bouygues is a diversified industrial group with five main businesses: (1) Construction (building, civil works, energy and services); (2) Property; (3) Roads, through road builder Colas (quoted); (4) Telecoms; and (5) Media, through TF1 (quoted). Current valuation (€34.7/share) doesn’t factor in the likely sale of B-Tel to Orange and/or SFR and the positive trend in…

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CLOSING RECKITT’S SHORT

+4.09%

We felt the reaction early on Friday was wrong given the new news. Closing our trading short and happy to lock in 4.09% in a session.   RECKITT’S: TRADING SHORT DEAL & UNDERLYING TRENDS UNDERWHELM Friday • 10 February 2017 • 10:35 The rationale for the deal becomes clear today with a very poor +1%…

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RECKITT’S : TRADING SHORT

DEAL & UNDERLYING TRENDS UNDERWHELM

The rationale for the deal becomes clear today with a very poor +1% LFL and underwhelming guidance of 3% organic vs the market closer to 4.5%. Growth is slowing, potential acquisitions are few and far between. They need to buy growth to sustain their premium rating. Most acquisitions are accretive given financing costs. It doesnt…

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ADIDAS CLOSING SHORT TRADE

THEY CONTINUE TO TAKE MKT SHARE.

I have always been a Nike man but even I bought 3 pairs of NMDs in the last month. Time to take the pain and cut this trade. Closing for a 22% loss.   UPDATE ADIDAS NUMBERS IN-LINE. STOCK OVERPRICED Thursday • 03 March 2016 • 15:17 Numbers were in line, but the stock is…

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BUY BOLLORE

RESTRUCTURING WILL RELEASE VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS : TP €5.5 upside of 45%+

CP €3.77. Blue Sky valorisation: €7.42 SUPERB TRACK RECORD Vincent Bolloré took over the management of the family company in 1981 as it was on the verge of filing bankruptcy: 35 years later BOLLORE is valued at €11.2bn. CAGR from 1991 is an impressive 11.8% on current price vs. 14.9% for Berkshire Hathaway which trades at…

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ORANGE CLOSING LONG

+7.26%

We still like the business fundamentally with still ample opportunities to cut costs, the potential for an increasing div this year, re-emergence of consolidation possibilities post the election and still at a discount to the sector on 5.5x EV/EBITDA vs the sector on 6.5x. But the moves in Italy and rumours on canal+ make us…

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MARKET THOUGHTS INTO Q1

We are getting a glimpse of the likely Q1 evolution here today in Europe. The confusion is that with a meaningful pullback in bond yields over the last month, the reflation trade has barely lost steam, and with better inflation/PMI prints over the last 2 days, it has restarted aggressively. The point is that there…

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CLOSING SHORT FIAT

A PART OF OUR MARKET THOUGHTS PIECE INTO Q1

Part of our thoughts into Q1 is a positive spin on autos. See full note: Market Thoughts Into Q1 We would be long autos. The currency move is helpful, and until the tightening monetary conditions in the US hurt US growth, this is likely to continue to be the case. Valuations are still very low,…

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