CLOSING SHORT KERING GREAT NUMBERS.
Great set of numbers from Kering. Beats across the board with Gucci really smashing it. Although a lot is in the price now ,we feel that the cash flow generation the Gucci’s ongoing strength will continue to attract money ST.
We close our short for a 6.7% ABS Loss.
FIRST TAKE POST NUMBERS
Friday • 22 April 2016 • 13:32
Very first take a miss across Luxury at 2.6% vs 5% cons, with GUCCI +3.1% vs cons of about 5% on easy (-7.6%) comps and a slowdown vs the 4.7% printed last quarter. Total revs a 2.5% miss, saved by a strong showing from Puma, but that won’t be a surprise given what we have heard from Adidas. As a reminder, comps get harder next quarter, this slowdown will not be helpful.
They will be very weak to start tomorrow and we see that as another chance to sell more as the comps will just get tougher for them in the next quarter and we expect a poor H1. Still loved by the street.
INTO NUMBERS TOMORROW
Wednesday • 20 April 2016 • 13:32
Kering has participated in this broader China rally, up almost 10% since LVMH confirmed that FLG growth was actually 2% without some discontinued items.
Expectations are quite high for KER. Following the Gucci relaunch in Q3 last year and a 4.8% growth print the market is going for another 5% this quarter. This is on easy -7.9% comps. Consensus is between 5-6% for the total group on easy -0.6% comps.
However, the Puma strength is very well flagged and the YSL director leaving is likely to have had a small impact. Trends are poor in general. With weak tourism volumes as a result of the Paris and Brussels attack which were felt throughout Q1. A continued slowdown in the US and poor trading in HK as flagged by Prada, Burberry and LVMH so far.
Going into next quarter comps become far more difficult. Gucci is lapping a 4.6% comp and the group 7.8%. Trends are unlikely to lessen with pricing pressures being felt keenly across regions.
Some will argue that at 14x next year this is discounted. However if you disguard preferential tax treatment it actually trades more expensive than LVMH on EV/EBIT and more inline with the sector. This is without really having proven the turnaround story in Gucci yet – 1 quarter does not make a trend.