Bond move gone too far? BUY TMV US

The narrative now is all about a growth slowdown due to tough comps, FED being slightly hawkish and more press noise on new variants.

I think things accelerate again in Q4 once vaccines all out there and we’re comping vs last year’s lockdowns.

Europe & US is all open although Asia is shutting down again – Q3 and Q4 gives another few months for vaccines to catch up.

Q3 last year was relatively normal because we had squashed it with lockdowns in Q2…

In Q4 last year we had lockdowns again into xmas so comps are easier in Q4 than Q3, so rate of change terms things look better.

Added to this everyone has been the same way to start the year, now everyone getting to the other side of the boat with the growth slowing narrative.

I believe this is wrong and this move has more to do with positioning and narrative rather than any change in fundamentals.

To me, the US 10yr yield is at the lows and has run its course. I see the 10yr moving back to 2% as investors feel inflation fears have passed and people have exited the inflation trade. Inflation and yields to higher highs going forward.

We are expressing this trade via our existing oil positions and adding a Long TMV US trade to our portfolio.

TMV US corresponds to the 3X inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Years Bond Index.

https://etfdb.com/etf/TYO/#etf-ticker-profile

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