MINERS vs. OILS
They wont get much help from oil price U/G’s as the mkt is up with the forward curve in Oil and nat gas.
The last leg higher has been as a result of the surge in the oil price but that is in the process of being unwound and see downside risk there.
Re-rating they have had incorporates bullish assumptions about cash flow generation and margins going forward.
After the rally and re rating they have had it will be tough to keep those assumptions going. Some decent execution risk.
Less capex now means less growth in the future and there is only so much cost cutting they can do. Its a fine balance with oil price already in the price and execution risk in margin.
Miners are a decent trade against them. Well certain names as most of the metals are due price U/Gs. Base Metal EPS Gains of 15- 84% Expected on PMI, Prices according to consensus on Bloomberg.
We are long an equally weighted basket of: AAL LN, RIO LN, GLEN LN & BLT LN.
We are short an equally weighted basket of: ENI IM, RDSA LN, FP FP, BP/ LN.