RESEARCH REVIEW for 1H 2017

The French Specialist

Following a 7 year sabbatical, I am again trying to find and recommend great value in the European markets. As in the past, I am researching companies trading at a substantial discount to peers on SOP/NAV, relative valuation and DCF with a catalyst to realize value. I have written on 8 companies (7 buys and…

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TECHNICOLORE

CLOSING POSITION AFTER ANOTHER PROFIT WARNING -3.25%

It feels that it is a bigger profit warning than just the risen cost of DRAM and mgt sees falling rev in Connected Home by about 10% in 1H (tough comps) but expect rev to rise 15% in 2H … It feels that they postponing again a turnaround: I would take my profits / cut…

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BUY DEUTSCHE TELEKOM

CLOSING SCRIP ARB OPPORTUNITY: +2.3%

Although we like the MT picture for DTE this was a short term technical trade. So we step aside and book some profits. +2.3%  For more trading ideas: http://monacoalpha.com/   BUY DEUTSCHE TELEKOM SCRIP DIVIDEND ARB CREATES OPPORTUNITY Thursday • 15 June 2017 • 15:39 DTE went ex div on June 1st. Shareholders can elect to…

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INGENICO

SELL: 3RD PROFIT WARNING COMING

TARGET PRICE: €70.00 News flow points to continued weakness in the 1H = risk of a 3rd profits warning Ingenico provides solutions for e-payment transactions including hardware, software & services across all channels (point of sale, mobile, online). The Co. has 3 businesses, Smart Terminals, Payment Services and Mobile Solutions. Co is due to report…

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VIVENDI

STRONG BUY: A (NEW) POWERHOUSE IN CONTENT/PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION BUSINESSES

Target Price: 23€ Blue Sky: 29€ UMG is turning around as streaming more than compensate for downloads. Growth is coming back for the first time since the early 2000. UMG is the largest of the 3 major (Warner Music and Sony Music) with a 35%+ market share and more than 3mn titles. Increasing adoption of…

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LONG UBISOFT UPDATE

BUY +58.33%

Ubisoft Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT EU49 post inline numbers last and called -4-5% at CS OUR VIEW: Numbers last night light pretty much inline. Not enough to push the stock post recent rally. However what we found encouraging in the numbers was how well they are  executing on the  strategy to expand…

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MONACO ALPHA: BUY: FRENCH CONSOLIDATION BASKET

BUY +3.17%

BOUY: Numbers a beat with revs 3%. Guidance reiterated. French telco consolidation will happen this year. Stay long the basket. 30% upside   MONACO ALPHA: BUY: FRENCH CONSOLIDATION BASKET Friday • 5th May 2017 • 11:14 Consolidation in France has been like the boy who cried wolf. Often attempted and never completed. We are not…

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UPDATE LONG BOUYGUES

BUY +17.6%

Target price 55€ Blue Sky 62.23 € Numbers a beat with revs 3%. Guidance reiterated. STAY LONG   UPDATE LONG BOUYGUES BOUYGUES DENIES ANY TALKS TO SELL ALSTOM STAKE At the same time, there is very little strategic reason to hold a 8.31% stake … And if a Telco deal happens (I continue to think…

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SHORT EASYJET

CLOSING SHORT +6.3%

1H17 Results Worse Than Expected. Post the rally and elevated multiple vs the sector the market was hoping for a cost save plan and capacity reduction. Nothing was forthcoming except a weak performance from the CEO on CNBC this morning and a miss on numbers. They most likely have alot further to fall but this…

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SHORT UNILEVER

CLOSING UNILEVER: TRADING BEAR

Numbers were a decent beat last week. However the stock hasn’t pushed on. Similar reaction today in BEIERSDORF post a good set of numbers. I think the sector is topping out,however the thesis for this trade was a trading bear into April numbers and it hasn’t played out as we assumed. We step aside. +0.39%…

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