ORANGE CLOSING LONG

+7.26%

We still like the business fundamentally with still ample opportunities to cut costs, the potential for an increasing div this year, re-emergence of consolidation possibilities post the election and still at a discount to the sector on 5.5x EV/EBITDA vs the sector on 6.5x. But the moves in Italy and rumours on canal+ make us…

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MARKET THOUGHTS INTO Q1

We are getting a glimpse of the likely Q1 evolution here today in Europe. The confusion is that with a meaningful pullback in bond yields over the last month, the reflation trade has barely lost steam, and with better inflation/PMI prints over the last 2 days, it has restarted aggressively. The point is that there…

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CLOSING SHORT FIAT

A PART OF OUR MARKET THOUGHTS PIECE INTO Q1

Part of our thoughts into Q1 is a positive spin on autos. See full note: Market Thoughts Into Q1 We would be long autos. The currency move is helpful, and until the tightening monetary conditions in the US hurt US growth, this is likely to continue to be the case. Valuations are still very low,…

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MEDIASET (TRADING SHORT)

CLOSING HALF FOR +10.05%

The trading short was based on the fact that a take over was not on the cards. Due to Bollore’s previous stake building strategy and admission that he intended to build his stake to 20%. Added to this was Berlusconi’s blocking stake. So when the muscle flexing/additional buying abated a sell off would ensue. Vivendi…

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MEDIASET TRADING SELL

WHERE'S THE BEACH?

Got to love this muscle flexing between two European titans. But it is important to remember the objectives here. Bollore wants a piece of MS premium for distribution. He has previous with forcing through change by acquiring board seats (see TI), so we might expect him to get to 20% over time, get 2 board…

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CLOSING LONG ISP

+17.01%

We bought this name into numbers as it was unfairly punished due to macro concerns. However company had solid fundamentals and the real story for us was the dividend. It took a while and has been a wild ride in the last few weeks but we will use the recent rally to take profits. Closing…

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CLOSING SHORT BZU IM

-6.1%

We felt that with price being near all time highs and Trump rally being overdone, SHORT BZU was a decent trading call, but were wrong this time. Closing for -6.1% loss.   BUZZI UNICEM TRADING SELL NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS Thursday • 17 November 2016 • 09:08 Trading near all time highs post an average…

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BUY UBISOFT

E-GAMING, PLAY THE FUTURE

Ubisoft is a BUY for us at these levels as a part of the bigger thematic play in E-Gaming. 2016’s Cyber Monday was the biggest day in the history of U.S. e-commerce. Consumers spent ~$3.45 billion online on Monday. The top two items were eGaming consoles: Sony PS4 and the Xbox One. Ubisoft’s pipeline is…

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CLOSING ISP vs ISPR

SPREAD AT 7.8%

The spread has widened this morning post Italian referendum. We don’t believe that conversion will happen, and at these levels we end up flat on the spread. We put on the trade in February, and the spread didn’t come to the 10%-15% levels that we were expecting, so we are ready to close this trade…

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CLOSING SHORT BLT CALL

POST OPEC +3.16%

OPEC has finally delivered with agreed cut of 1.2M BPD. This was a short call into the OPEC meeting with low expectation of any sort of viable agreement. BLT rallying post OPEC and we are covering our short for +3.16%.   BLT TRADING SHORT INTO OPEC Monday • 28 November 2016 • 08:59 BLT a…

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