UPDATE: ATOS

CYBERSECURITY AS VALUATION GAP STARTS TO DIMINISH

Cheap to peers. Underperformed Cap Gemini by 0ver 20% in the last year. Last year they bought Xerox’s IT Outsourcing Business. Atos will triple in size its US footprint. Earning’s from Bull will stabilise and Xerox aquisition synergies will pay in H2 2015. Well known growth drivers are big data, cloud and electronic payment systems….

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UPDATE: TF1

TF1 numbers tomorrow: Stay long for the special divi

Good numbers from M6 today Over to TF1 tomorrow Had a great run but we believe that TF1 will continue to take mkt share in the french Ad market. However for us the major catalyst has always been their massive cash balance. We are looking for a number near the 1bn EUR level. They still…

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CLOSING: TECHNIP

CLOSING FOR -10.3% LOSS

4Q14 results were good today, with strong order intake and bullish on 2015 outlook The dividend increase of 8% was also a positive surprise Overall the they beat mkt expectations especially in the subsea division and increased their current operating margin Although I feel 2015 will be even tougher and would be happy MT to…

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UPDATE: ING vs KBC

GOOD NUMBERS

Good numbers for us. They have delivered. NIMS looks better than cons. Reduced Russian exposure(reduced by 2bn) The key for us was always the dividend. They have beaten expectations by re instated the dividend for 2014. Big surprise and very +ve. This will not only be rewarded by the mkt in general as we have…

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UPDATE: ING vs KBC

Numbers tomorrow

ING is a name we like stand alone. One of our key bull points was an expectation of good earning growth(cons look beatable) and this leading to dividend resumption. Any positive divi changes are being rewarded as seen with ISP today. Focus tomorrow will be on capital and any positive noises around dividend payments.Currently guiding…

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UPDATE: SWATCH #2

STAY SHORT

UHR posted a poor set of figures with inline sales not feeding to the bottom line as a result of an increase in marketing expenses, and a worrying mix development, with low end brand outperformance impacting margins. This will lead to mid single digit EBIT downgrades today, and both trends are expected to continue, as…

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CLOSING: CRH

25% accretive deal. Closing half position +18.7%

One of our original bull points was Lafarge/Holcim being forced sellers and if CRH can get a price near the 5bn mark it will immediately become accretive. The deal announced today will be 25% accretive in first full year. Nice move this morning but the stock price is only back to where we were a…

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LVMH

SHORT into Numbers Tuesday

+11% YTD and +33% off October lows. Market is aware of positive currency impact of the weaker EUR This performance is in contrast to 8 consecutive quarters of earnings downgrades It now trades on a punchy 19x earnings. Going into a quarter where we are likely to see the worst ever organic growth number in fashion and…

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UPDATE: THE SECRET PM

PIRELLI: STORM IN A TEACUP SAYS EXANE

There is pressure on Pirelli today (down 2.5%) after a broker is suggesting the company may need to write-down its assets in Venezuela and Argentina, similarly to what Ford did, adding profits are overstated by 12%. WE HAVE SPOKEN TO THE COMPANY and believe this is a storm in a tea cup. Why: Venezuela +…

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CLOSING: AIRBUS

CLOSING AIR +12.9%

The -19% AIR move in reaction to the warning at the CMD was an over-reaction to the 10% downgrade because it was unexpected, and the trade was crowded due to its EUR leverage That should be the final warning/rebase and the strong LT earnings story is back There is still some uncertainty around the A330…

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