LVMH

+11% YTD and +33% off October lows. Market is aware of positive currency impact of the weaker EUR

This performance is in contrast to 8 consecutive quarters of earnings downgrades

It now trades on a punchy 19x earnings. Going into a quarter where we are likely to see the worst ever organic growth number in fashion and leather

Since the SNB debacle if you want to be in Luxury you had little choice and LVMH has benefitted from flows

Consensus for next year implies a re-acceleration of organic growth year

Difficulties for high end consumers in China (anti-Graft and corruption), Russia, Japan (Yen weakness), Arabic nations (Oil price) have already been well documented in warnings from Prada, Chow Tai Fook, Richemont and today with Emperor Watch

Meaning that re-acceleration of growth highly unlikely, and consensus is way too high. SELL