Secret PM

MICHELIN

CLOSING TRADING SELL + 2.87% ABS +3.07% REL

Numbers tonight and I think they will be ok. This was a trading sell and I don’t need the earnings risk. May look to re short tomorrow post numbers but for now we step aside and book a small profit.   MICHELIN TRADING SELL Thursday • 28th September 2017 • 16:08 Despite recently cutting EBIT…

For full note click here...

EEM US

TRADING SHORT

Last night was a mildly hawkish surprise from the FED. Certainly judging by the bond market recently, the hurricanes and recent poor inflation prints had dampened expectations for December. December is in play, and you get the feeling the FED want to continue normalising while they still can, and why not whilst the US is…

For full note click here...

CLOSING SHORT MEDIASET

MUSCLE SHOW IS OVER. +31.40% abs +24.41% rel

The bid hasn’t come to fruition and the announcement that the shares will be placed into a trust denote that VIV wants TI more than MS. In the meantime the market has been left to deal with the decline in OTT TV and numerous warnings elsewhere in the space, allowing MS to reconnect with fundamentals….

For full note click here...

NEXT

TRADING SELL: +12% OVERDONE??

Small beat, but +20% on a 1% increase in PBT guidance since the bottom and +12% today. I understand the positives of the buyback and trading being better. Decent SI has also helped the rally today. They had a relevance problem, which they have cleaned up, that is what they are in control of. HOWEVER…

For full note click here...

LONG TELCOS vs SHORT INDUSTRIALS

22% UNDERPERFORMANCE

This trade has not worked from day one. There are still telco’s we like stand alone and there is still great value and stories in the sector. VOD/TIT & DTE but we step aside on this spread trade and lick our wounds. Have a good day. Closing for -14.60% abs.   LONG TELCOS vs SHORT…

For full note click here...

BUY RWE

CLOSING RWE: +57.96%

We initiated on RWE as a cheap way into Innogy. RWE’s valuation is highly dependent on its Innogy stake When we initiated it accounted for over 200% of RWE’s market cap. Now it only accounts for 120%. Recent out-performance has come from that discount reducing as people saw value and the recent bid noise around…

For full note click here...

BUY TELECOM ITALIA

CHEAPEST TELCO IN EUROPE WITH LARGEST UPSIDE

Cheapest Telco in Europe with largest upside with strong quarterly earnings for the past 3Q. Consensus remains well below management guidance. Telecom Italia S.p.A., through subsidiaries, offers fixed line and mobile telephone and data transmission services. Telecom Italia is set to dominate TV distribution in Italy with a market share similar to the 50% it…

For full note click here...

ENI BUY

OIL: REITERATE BUY ENI

Interesting convergence of events this week. Perhaps the most significant was the CAPEX cut by Anadarko, one of the best capitalised US E&Ps, essentially showing that the lower oil price is starting to bite. Importantly for the sector, which is usually rewarded for growth, Anadarko rallied yesterday, which may nudge others to show some discipline…

For full note click here...

BUY TELECOM ITALIA:

Equity vs long bond, has hugely u/p (see graph below) & strong numbers from Vodafone in Italy

Vodafone numbers strong in Italy, European macro flying and so is the euro so buy domestic growth. Still the cheapest telco in Europe post the last 3 quarters of excellent earnings growth. With a large gap between cons and mgmt guidance set to narrow. At the same time current valuations (DCF, relative and BV) point…

For full note click here...

BUY DEUTSCHE TELEKOM

CLOSING SCRIP ARB OPPORTUNITY: +2.3%

Although we like the MT picture for DTE this was a short term technical trade. So we step aside and book some profits. +2.3%  For more trading ideas: http://monacoalpha.com/   BUY DEUTSCHE TELEKOM SCRIP DIVIDEND ARB CREATES OPPORTUNITY Thursday • 15 June 2017 • 15:39 DTE went ex div on June 1st. Shareholders can elect to…

For full note click here...