EDF Raises 2020 Profit Target as Nuclear Output Recovers *We booked half of our position at the end of November and remain long for the balance *Although we have already had alot of the short term upside on the potential break up and nuclear power pricing reform, EDF is also implementing self help strategies to…
– Results upper end of guidance while outlook muted due to pandemic – EUR 0.7 dividend proposed – expects a return to sustainable sales and earnings growth after the pandemic and confirms its ambition to gain further market share – Up +4% this morning on the back of the results -Our thoughts: We continue to…
*A lot of the previous upside from the mixed energy business now priced in while renewable future prospects still need to be re-rated*Detailed reports out that government has reached an agreement dividing it into ‘Blue’ which is the Nuclear along with the Hyrdo business as a subsidiary and then the Green separate*Reports the government has…
*Market cap could effectively double on a positive ruling *Decision likely already taken – now just paperwork *Decision cannot be challenged – only process *Speculation in press in India is that India could challenge the process saying that tax is not part of the bilateral investment treaty *CNE does not think discussion about process has…
*We have a price target of EUR 15 based on our DCF valuation versus the current offer at EUR 8.48 and see the end of the additional acceptance period on 17th November as a potential catalyst *Share price been depressed since 14th September when EP Global (Ran by Czech billionaire Kretinsky) launch their zero premium EUR 8.48…
*We are up +18% since we intitiated the trade and remain long *News overnight highlights that catalyst underway although little details at this point *Issue for a breakup scenario has been a lack of agreement between the EU and France – this seems to be underway now *We see large potential to unlock value in…
Market thoughts…plenty of competing factors at the moment ensure that there will be volatility into and out of the election. Fundamentally things are getting worse, freedom of movement is diminishing and the expectation of a linear improvement of Q4 over Q3 in many parts of the market looks optimistic. But balancing that we have a…
*Guidance for outcome of the USD 1.4bn arbitration case is still end of summer 2020 *Covid should not have delayed much as independent arbitrators are used to working remotely and based in 3 different countries *Both parties have looked at losses suffered and not far apart in estimates *Outcome of arbitration cannot be appealed although…
*We have a price target of EUR 12, implying a 70% upside *Yesterday’s price did not reflect the full value of the deal and we also see further chance of upside within the Potash prices *The company announced last night that they have now signed the agreement with Kissner Group to sell its Morton Salt…
Interesting talk about potential reform on the Nuclear front on EDF FP – we see large value *We see large potential to unlock value in case of a split with the government keeping the Nuclear assets and splitting off the renewables *EDF trading very cheap compared to the rest of the ESG / Renewable sector…