Pre Q2 earnings, analysts already seem to have settled for organic growth at the same level as Q1. That leaves the FY guidance of 5%-6% unachievable and as we suggested in our original sell idea we should see downgrades at Q2 as a result of mall warnings from the US and under penetration online. Consensus…
-17% since Brexit vote we feel it is sensible to close half our position here and book some profits. RYANAIR: SHORT SELL BRACE BRACE!!! Wednesday • 24 February 2016 • 15:12 RYA is a great business. It has industry leading cost control and margins, and is now repositioning itself to improve the quality of…
GS on SHIRE: It’s all about the growth and cash flow; reinstate at CL-Buy Source of opportunity We believe Shire’s current valuation (10x 2017E P/E) is very attractive relative to its growth profile (9% revenue/15% EPS CAGR 2017-20E) and the cash generation outlook. We believe current Bloomberg consensus and valuation significantly underestimate: 1) synergy potential…
Investor briefing this afternoon as the new CEO addresses the market for the first time since he began 7 months ago. Expect the strategy to be more about vision than hard targets. Sentiment on trucks is already very poor given numerous recent warnings, which could provide upside. Expect comments on the aftermarket opportunity, market share…
We expect to see continued FTSE outperformance on back of FX benefits. The names we are already Long and would be Buying here are GSK/ SHP/ VOD. For GSK 10% GBP move is worth 9% in earnings upside. http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/update-glaxosmithkline-6/ Shire is translational USD earnings as 95% of earnings are outside the UK. http://monacoalpha.com/ideas/update-shire-2/ VODs has…
The recent sell off is unjustified and we feel it is due to the fact it is well owned. From a fundamental perspective it trades on 12x next years earnings with a solid pipeline. It is a massive USD play with 95% of their revenues being outside the UK so they benefit from the weaker…
Closing our scrip divi opportunity BUY trading call: -3.99% ABS, +1.45% REL. BUY DEUTSCHE TELEKOM SCRIP DIVIDEND ARB CREATES OPPORTUNITY Thursday • 09 June 2016 • 10:25 DTE went ex a €0.55 div that shareholders can take in cash or shares. Over the record date short interest has increased by 500m shares which will…
DTE went ex a €0.55 div that shareholders can take in cash or shares. Over the record date short interest has increased by 500m shares which will be utilised for scrip arbitrage. The reference price for the scrip will be set using the VWAP today. Using the subscription ratio we estimate roughly 28 entitlements to…
Sandvik’s capital markets day passed without event and puts the short case back into play. Instead of extensive portfolio restructuring that the market wanted we got a reshuffle and no sale of SMT. We got 2018 guidance that aims for margin improvement to 15% through cycle (which won’t be an easy task) and we still…
Closing trade as we feel a lot of the bad news is in the price and €6 has proved to be a decent floor medium term. We are closing here for +10.66% and will look to re short around the €7 level. IT’S NOT JUST PAPER MONEY Tuesday • 03 May 2016 • 13:10…