We believe the risk reward is compelling to stay short into numbers tomorrow. To move the needle to the upside they will need to come up with some special numbers. Pretty much priced to perfection. Senior and Michelin both talking down trucks overnight and there will be a hit from rising raw material prices (steel)….
We feel it is right to sell Adidas and shift the capital into better opportunities. Although the market overall has been broadly flat for 2 years there have been and we feel there still are lots of opportunities within that. It has been a great trade for our Secret PM product. Trade was initiated October…
Reuters reported that German government put out a draft law (expected to be approved on October 19th – next Wednesday) in which it states that nuclear operators will transfer 23.5B EUR for the nuclear fuel liabilities. This is a positive read for our LONGS in RWE and EON as this equates to 1.5B EUR less…
We are initiating a position today on the back of continuing diverging trends in the two names. This is the start of their product cycles diverging. European September car registration numbers out this morning are just the start with PSA numbers -5.8% and Renault dominating with +18.7%. We also expect the YEN to weaken as…
We believe the credit impulse from Chinese policy will slow massively from here to year end. This is coupled with the recent policy to calm the housing market which will also have a negative impact. Miners have got way ahead of commodities fundamentals. Citi downgraded RIO and BHP today as well as mentioned in our…
Several warnings from the US now creating more concerns over the US industrial cycle. Brammers warning also creating some uncertainty on early cycle in Europe. SAND has 50% of its EBITDA exposed to early cycle in Europe and the US (and automotive likely to be the weak point), but this is being largely ignored thanks…
German power prices racing to the highs here following coal and carbon prices. EON has been an absolute dog since the spin off 5x leverage bites and the market is waiting for a rights issue. That is the risky one, but worth a punt at these levels. RWE is more leveraged to power prices and…
Today ABI deal has been approved by SAB LN shareholders – 95.46% in faovur (scheme) 97.4% (court). With deal officially approved, we are closing our trading buy for 7.7% profit. LONG SAB TRADING CALL Monday • 23 May 2016 • 11:16 I think SAB is a buy here as well it is the most…
Ever analyst is still bearish and I don’t think we will be seeing material upgrades on the back of these numbers. I was hoping for 4-6% today . However it is a trading call so we close for +3.3% before the bears get their teeth back in. We may well be one of them soon…
We closed our short last night on the back of expected good numbers this morning following good momentum in LFL sales and management optimism on cash generation. They have delivered and although we think structural headwinds will persist they are a trading BUY for us today. SHORT INTEREST is 19%!! They will fly this morning….