The -19% AIR move in reaction to the warning at the CMD was an over-reaction to the 10% downgrade because it was unexpected, and the trade was crowded due to its EUR leverage That should be the final warning/rebase and the strong LT earnings story is back There is still some uncertainty around the A330…
Discovery Said to Fight Murdoch’s Sky for English Soccer Rights Had been rumoured but was questioned given start up costs etc. This means they are more likely to fight BT for the small packages over large SKY packages One of the bull cases for BT has been that the streets rights inflation has been too…
Near term support to earnings; less exposed to industry’s pricing pressure. Throughout ’14, Pirelli has demonstrated strong execution skills in a more difficult environment by improving further its premium mix contribution and gaining market share. In addition, thanks to its premium niche model, Pirelli is less at risk than peers to the industry’s pricing pressure….
BASF has been a massive laggard largely due to its oil exposure Short term material moves downwards in energy markets usually lead to destocking events pressuring volumes (see LXS). However we feel this has been reflected in the downgrades we have seen since the back end of 2014 The impact on the core chemicals division…
CFR numbers this morning were poor. Not only was it a sales miss, but the miss was in the high margin Asian region which will hit the bottom line to a greater degree The bull case has largey been driven on the FX headwind of 2014 becoming a tailwind, adding as much as 10% to…
Like this spread from a chart perspective and fundamentally KBC is fully valued and has limited upcoming catalysts ING has been unjustly hit on Russian exposure. However they have limited ruble exposure as most loans are in USD and EUR and the loan book is high quality corporate ING Results 11th Feb to be a…
12% rally from the lows in December due to the stabilisation in oil prices. Oil stocks have caught back up to the oil price and overshot Since then brent has broken $60 and is heading lower for me Strong USD and weak China data in December will continue to drag Oil service stocks will continue…
Switzerland Nov. Watch Exports Fell 4.4%. Poor numbers and more confirmation of our bear case Numbers still need to come down as loved by analysts. The iWatch still has not arrived UBS think that 24m iWatches will be sold next year vs 28mn total exports from Swiss watch industry in 2013 Stay Short Short…
Short SWATCH..TAG HEUER reacting to iWatch Threat Tag Heuer enlists partners in smartwatch plan and may make acquisitions (Reuters article) “Smartwatches represent a challenge to the Swiss watch industry that is comparable to the appearance of quartz technology. We cannot ignore this tsunami that is coming closer,” Semon said They are all finally waking…
Trading buying AIR CMD did not live up to expectations Leading people to cut 2016 numbers 2016 EBIT was flat vs expectations of 8% growth We are now off 15% in last two sessions The downgrades are in the price for us Trades on attractive multiples here and has limited downside to earnings. We…