UPDATE: SWATCH #2

Short SWATCH..TAG HEUER reacting to iWatch Threat

 

• Tag Heuer enlists partners in smartwatch plan and may make acquisitions (Reuters article)
• “Smartwatches represent a challenge to the Swiss watch industry that is comparable to the appearance of quartz technology. We cannot ignore this tsunami that is coming closer,” Semon said
• They are all finally waking up to the threat. They have been in denial so far. iWatch is not even here and analysts are still in love with Swatch and numbers are too high
• Stay short sell any rallies

 

 

Tue, 16 Dec 2014 07:46

Reopening a short

 

• 2014 EBIT consensus is too high at CHF1.97bn – could come down to c.CHF1.75 according to Mainfirst
• One of our original arguments was that consensus was too high
• Analysts still love them and expect organic growth. I think they are dreaming
• Apple watch is not far away and will have a much bigger impact than most expect
• UBS think that 24m iWatches will be sold next year vs 28mn total exports from Swiss watch industry in 2013
• Tech and iWatch is the future
• Looking to see them back at this years lows in the next 3 months
• See original idea from September