Ideas

VIVENDI

STRONG BUY: A (NEW) POWERHOUSE IN CONTENT/PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION BUSINESSES

Target Price: 23€ Blue Sky: 29€ UMG is turning around as streaming more than compensate for downloads. Growth is coming back for the first time since the early 2000. UMG is the largest of the 3 major (Warner Music and Sony Music) with a 35%+ market share and more than 3mn titles. Increasing adoption of…

For full note click here...

UPDATE LONG BOUYGUES

BUY +17.6%

Target price 55€ Blue Sky 62.23 € Numbers a beat with revs 3%. Guidance reiterated. STAY LONG   UPDATE LONG BOUYGUES BOUYGUES DENIES ANY TALKS TO SELL ALSTOM STAKE At the same time, there is very little strategic reason to hold a 8.31% stake … And if a Telco deal happens (I continue to think…

For full note click here...

TELECOM ITALIA: SELL

TIT: Trading Sell

Issues with TIT and why we could see ST weakness for a couple of days. o/p the SXKP by 20% YTD almost There have been a lot of catalysts that have played out now…italy consol, bollore involved etc People been buying them since 1eur for those reasons. Really the one remaining catalyst is Brazil which…

For full note click here...

UPDATE: PEUGEOT

STAY LONG/ADD INTO NUMBERS

Results are widely expected to be good tomorrow which is likely to produce some near term risk, but also likely to provide comfort for our longer term view; the auto margin for 1H should comfortably surpass the 2% 2018 target, which supports a stock price through EUR20 Cash is also likely to beat if it…

For full note click here...

SKF: BUY

BEFORE THE 2H REBOUND

With its guidance cut SKF has now re-based expectations down to a level where, on 12x PE and less than 10x EBIT, we feel comfortable buying for an 2H rebound, continuing on into 2016. The CFO’s guidance communication was poor. To the extent he sent an apology via email post the conf call. Sequential demand…

For full note click here...

UPDATE: RIO

CLOSING BLT/PRITCHARD ARTICLE

Interesting article from Pritchard in the telegraph. Bearing in mind he is the ultimate bear/end of the world man China shakes off deep slump as credit soars again. Forward-looking gauges of consumer confidence are rising at the fastest rate since 2007 in China as output picks up on almost every front. China’s housing market is…

For full note click here...

CLOSING BLT

Adding to Rio/Pritchard article

Interesting article from Pritchard in the telegraph. Bearing in mind he is the ultimate bear/end of the world man. China shakes off deep slump as credit soars again. Forward-looking gauges of consumer confidence are rising at the fastest rate since 2007 in China as output picks up on almost every front. China’s housing market is…

For full note click here...

VW: BUY

2Q EARNINGS RELIEF ON THE WAY!

China has been a well known issue for the autos. With over 40% of profits from the region last year, VW has not been immune. The two main issues have been accelerating pricing pressure with VW’s premium a problem (likely to be subtly addressed in the coming months). Secondly the lack of a competitive SUV…

For full note click here...

UPDATE: SHORT TERM IDEAS: DIA

CLOSING FOR +6.2%

Locking in +6.2% in our trading short initiated post the placing. We are in the eye of the market unwind where placing stocks tend to get punished as we saw yesterday. There was no fundamental basis for the trade and for that reason we are happy to take profits.   DIA SHORT-TERM SELL Tuesday •…

For full note click here...

BUY IAG

READY TO TAKE OFF FOR SUMMER

With more than a 15% pull back, IAG now looks too cheap on 8.5x next years earnings. With solid traffic stats yesterday we view this potentially MERS related weakness as a good entry point. Since EZJ numbers the market has been concerned with the increased competition/price cuts on the back of the lower oil price,…

For full note click here...