Ideas

Current Mkt Thoughts: The worm is Turning

Over the last month or so there has been a reweight into defensive’s and a divergence between domestic reopening plays and international. I think there will be a period of time in the middle of the year where everything consolidates. When the rate of change data starts rolling over a bit. This could be what…

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UPDATE: BUY EDF: Government Buyout. Perf +25.45% to date

Reuters article out overnight saying the government set aside EUR 10bn to buyout the 16.3% minority interest and is having talks with unions – article cites people familiar Our back of the envelope calculation implies this is a >75% premium which would imply a price of EUR 19.8 versus the last price of EUR 11.225…

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Faurecia – Cutting our Trading Short -7.5% ABS, -1.8% REL

*Selling flow did not outweigh the strength in the market over the last couple of weeks *Our short thesis was based on our expectations that we would see 1/3 of the STLA’s stake distribution going to holders who would not wish to hold a small stake in a relatively small European listed company with no…

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Ferro-Alloy – Update – Reiterate BUY +30% ABS, +28% REL

Medium term upside 300%, Blue Sky 1,500% The company has just released a new corporate presentation where they highlight Vanadium as a green metal and its new cornerstone investor, the founder of Xstrata 90% of the consumed vanadium goes to the global steel industry but the company highlights in the presentation the entirely new major…

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BUY KPN NA – All lining up, +30% upside potential

*We continue to see KPN cheap as our DCF valuation comes in around EUR 3.75 which leaves a +30% upside *With the elections out of the way, the Green party having lost half of their seats, and KPN’s agreement with APG (Dutch pension fund) to participate in a joint venture to further accelerate the fiber…

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INGENICO

CLOSING POSITION +17.36% RELATIVE VALUE +10.58%

Taking my profits on the back of the Natixis news -Natixis Confirms Interest in Exploring Combination W/ Ingenico -Says in preliminary discussions, will inform market if and when necessary. -Will further develop and invest in payment ops   INGENICO SELL: 3RD PROFIT WARNING COMING Thursday • 22nd June 2017 • 09:21 TARGET PRICE: €70.00 News…

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NORSK HYDRO

A BUY +28% UPSIDE IF NEGOTIATIONS WITH BRAZIL SUCCESSFUL

Current Price NOK43 Target Price NOK56 Upside: +30% *The closing down of Alunorte is most likely the starting point of real negotiations (as SBM did for their settlement with the Brazilian authority) *Norsk Hydro’s balance sheet is strong with a net debt/equity ratio of less than 0.2x and a strong FCF generation “The closing of…

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