Ideas

UPDATE: EUR/USD

Passing the buck - dollar stocks in Europe

Exane note: Passing the buck – dollar stocks in Europe “Dollar plays have not performed well, yet. Companies that have large structural transactional exposures to the EUR/USD exchange rate, such as Airbus and STMicroelectronics, have been poor year to date and have only started to pick up in recent weeks. And as we try to show,…

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UPDATE: EDENRED

French local technical analysts jumping on board.

French local technical analysts jumping on board   Following the Berenberg downgrade last week a few French trading websites are pushing the sell case on a technical level . See link Still expensive on many metrics with big Latin Amercian exposure as brazil roles over Cash flow is not as good as it looks and the…

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SWATCH

Trading short into tonight’s Apple event

Trading short into tonight’s Apple event   Swiss watch industry post an iWatch launch is compared to Blackberry’s demise, post the Apple iPhone introduction. Jonathan Ive, chief designer at Apple according to the NY Times Bold statement and a lot has been made of this in relation to Swatch. There is no doubt it will…

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CLOSING: DIXONS/CARPHONE

CLOSING TRADE +10.5%

Closing the trade. This trade was about Institutional attention turning to the combined entity and potential FTSE inclusion.Became self fulling in the week leading up the FTSE snapshot with the added help of the Vodafone deal. Closing for 10.51% return.   INSTITUTIONAL ATTENTION AND FTSE 100 INCLUSION THE NEXT STEP? Monday • 4 August 2014…

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CLOSING: FIAT

CLOSING TRADE +5.9%

Using strength today to close the second half of the position before a few days off. Touched our PT briefly last week of EU7.5. Would look to get back involved around 7 and any -ve noise on withdrawal rights or something concrete out of the company. This deal will happen.   CLOSING HALF POSITION HERE…

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UNICREDIT

Not joining in the rally today

Mon, 18 Aug 2014 16:30 Not joining in the rally today   For us it is one of the best stories out there in financials and definitely in Italy Get periphery exposure but in a liquid name Good numbers on 5 Aug beating expectations and due upgrades. We think around 10% Capital is good and…

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UPDATE: FIAT

Closing half here, +6%

Our PT was EU7.50 in the MT.  We are closing half the position here with 6% return in 3 days and hitting EU7.3. Italy closed tomorrow in voilatile mkts. Booking some profit and will look to buy back on any weakness next week around the 20th (last day to exercise the rights).     Mon,…

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METRO

Beaten down , Eastern European business valued at zero with numerous potential catalysts ahead. BUY

Beaten down , Eastern European business valued at zero with numerous potential catalysts ahead. BUY   YTD MEO is -30% vs DAX -5% on back of Russian IPO pulled and current Russia/Ukraine worries Stock spiked +7.8% on the initial announcement of the IPO while it has fallen 20% over the past month on geopolitical worries…

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FIAT

Recesso technical sell off creates an opportunity

Recesso technical sell off creates an opportunity. We do not believe shareholders that have been waiting for this deal to create real value want to block it now.   This does happen where there is a recesso and the stock trades below the put price as people get spooked. 100m of shares voted against the…

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DIXONS/CARPHONE

Institutional attention and FTSE 100 inclusion the next step?

Institutional attention and FTSE 100 inclusion the next step?   The new Dixons Carphone company will have a mkt cap of GBP 3.85bn. We feel this will put it back on the radar of big institutions and analyst attention will turn to them again (currently poorly covered). They will also become a candidate for FTSE…

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