UPDATE: SWATCH #2

Switzerland Nov. Watch Exports Fell 4.4%

Switzerland Nov. Watch Exports Fell 4.4%. Poor numbers and more confirmation of our bear case

Numbers still need to come down as loved by analysts. The iWatch still has not arrived

UBS think that 24m iWatches will be sold next year vs 28mn total exports from Swiss watch industry in 2013

Stay Short

 

Short SWATCH..TAG HEUER reacting to iWatch Threat

Wednesday • 17 December 2014 • 07:53

Tag Heuer enlists partners in smartwatch plan and may make acquisitions (Reuters article)

“Smartwatches represent a challenge to the Swiss watch industry that is comparable to the appearance of quartz technology. We cannot ignore this tsunami that is coming closer,” Semon said

They are all finally waking up to the threat. They have been in denial so far. iWatch is not even here and analysts are still in love with Swatch and numbers are too high

Stay short sell any rallies

 

Reopening a short

Tuesday • 16 December 2014 • 07:46

2014 EBIT consensus is too high at CHF1.97bn – could come down to c.CHF1.75 according to Mainfirst

One of our original arguments was that consensus was too high

Analysts still love them and expect organic growth. I think they are dreaming

Apple watch is not far away and will have a much bigger impact than most expect

UBS think that 24m iWatches will be sold next year vs 28mn total exports from Swiss watch industry in 2013

Tech and iWatch is the future

Looking to see them back at this years lows in the next 3 months

See original idea from September