UPDATE: EDENRED

French local technical analysts jumping on board.

French local technical analysts jumping on board

 

  • Following the Berenberg downgrade last week a few French trading websites are pushing the sell case on a technical level . See link
  • Still expensive on many metrics with big Latin Amercian exposure as brazil roles over
  • Cash flow is not as good as it looks and the dividend payments well may be an issue soon
  • It is no longer a growth company
  • Reiterating the fundamental SELL case as the technical sellers mount

 

 

 

Thu, 24 Jul 2014 16:17

Short squeeze another short opportunity?

 

  • The squeeze is a good short set up in EDEN afrer missing estimates and conforming guidance. Short interest at 9%
  • Still have the same issues of FX(although will be less in H2) and Venezuela exposure
  • Cash flow is a problem as they pay a decent divi and need cash to fund issued vouchers
  • The lack of topline growth will be an issue going forward
  • Still trades on expensive metrics and not much room for error.

 

 

Tue, 25 Mar 2014 08:57

Venezuela FX exposure

 

Decent devaluation Venezuelan currency last night, keep an eye on EDENRED with Venezuela exposure and still trading on rich multiples (-ve)

 

Looking risky into tomorrow’s Investor day

 

  • Investor day tomorrow and most analyst are bullish on them.. (11 buys 8 holds and only 4 sells)
  • Well worth keeping an eye on the headlines coming out of the Investor day..
  • It is a good company but ST i feel they need to accelerate earnings given how it has re rated and any form of disappointment tomorrow could see people heading for the door.
  • Expensive on 20 x2015. See the the attached Grab showing divergence between current stock price and EPS leading indicator
  • Watch out for any negative surprises on FX issues from Brazil and Venezuela as they have seen major devaluation and that looks set to continue and will have an increasingly negative effect on earnings.
  • They pay a good dividend but need cash to fund issued vouchers. Cash flow not as good as it looks
  • Street is very Bullish on them so not much room for error
  • Get short!

eden-vs-eps