SWATCH #2

Reopening a short

 

• 2014 EBIT consensus is too high at CHF1.97bn – could come down to c.CHF1.75 according to Mainfirst
• One of our original arguments was that consensus was too high
• Analysts still love them and expect organic growth. I think they are dreaming
• Apple watch is not far away and will have a much bigger impact than most expect
• UBS think that 24m iWatches will be sold next year vs 28mn total exports from Swiss watch industry in 2013
• Tech and iWatch is the future
• Looking to see them back at this years lows in the next 3 months
• See original idea from September