BUY TULLOW: CLOSING LONG

TIME FOR A PULLBACK +47.39%

This has been a great trade for us. I think people are very long Tullow and it has basically gone up in a straight line. Even though ultimately I think Tullow and Oil goes higher this year I feel it will have a pull back first. Stepping aside and booking a profit.

 

BUY TULLOW: Raises 2017 Free Cash Flow Forecast
TULLOW RAISES 2017 FREE CASH FLOW FORECAST BY $100m TO $500m

Wednesday • 10th January 2018 • 08:54

If they continue to generate FCF it is only more good news for the b/s. This coupled with the continuing oil price move means significant upside for Tullow. The name is still disliked and heavily shorted. Our DCF calls for a new PT of 272 as they continue to throw of improving FCF. STAY LONG. +53% abs/50% rel

 

BUY TULLOW: has completed the refinancing of $2.5bn of RBL
TULLOW HAS COMPLETED THE REFINANCING OF $2.5BN OF RBL – BUY WITH TP 250p

Wednesday• 29th November 2017 • 08:37

Tullow oil has announced this morning, they have completed the refinancing of $2.5bn of Reserve Based Lending credit facilities, which are split between a commercial bank facility of $2.4bn and an IFC facility of $ 100m. The fully committed facilities are revolving with a three-year grace period and the final maturity of November 2024. Tullow has also decided to reduce the commitments of its revolving Corporate Credit Facility from $800m to $600m, ahead of the scheduled amortization in January 2018. The refinancing of the RBL and the reduction of the revolving Corporate credit Facility have improved Tullow’s financial position with free cash of $0.9bn with no material near term debt maturities. DCF and relative to peers valution call for 250p/share. I think this news adds 10% to the share price.

 

BUY TULLOW OIL
BEST POSITIONED E&P. FCF POSITIVE

Tuesday • 27th June 2017 • 08:26

Best positioned of the E&P’s post the rights issue but -35% since the end of May as the market throws the towel in on long term oil projections.

Now pricing in ~50/55 USD oil forever. Not arguing for a long term bull case here, but 50% of production is hedged this year at 60 USD and 25% at 50 USD next year, so TLW is throwing off 400m GBP of FCF this year and is FCF +ve next, allowing for the necessary development capex.

In the meantime the Saudi change of Crown Prince may have important implications ahead of an ARAMCO IPO that is needed to fund change.

With the market now short oil, and having given up on any medium term improvement, now looks a decent entry point. PT 200