CLOSING: TF1

CLOSING LONG +26.1%

As well as improving advertising trends the big catalyst for us was always a special dividend and buyback as TF1’s cash pile grew through disposals

Numbers where inline today and the outlook was encouraging

The special dividend and buyback finally arrived

These where intregal to our bull case. They have now played out and we close our position from July 3rd for +26.1%

 

TF1 NUMBERS TOMORROW: STAY LONG FOR THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND

Wednesday • 18 February 2015 • 16:29

Good numbers from M6 today

Over to TF1 tomorrow

Had a great run but we believe that TF1 will continue to take mkt share in the french Ad market.

However for us the major catalyst has always been their massive cash balance. We are looking for a number near the 1bn EUR level.

They still have the option to sell the remaining stake in Eurosport this yearto add to the war chest

We are still looking for them to return cash to shareholders through a buyback or special dividend that the company has promised and see this as the next major catalyst

Staying long into numbers. Currently +22.4%

 

BUY – UPGRADE TO BUY AT UBS

Thursday • 02 October 2014 • 07:59

We believe the French Ad trends and TF1s mkt share will improve gradually this year. Content is king and this is where they dominate French TV which is all supportive. However the real big catalyst for us is the massive cash balance they have which will lead to a special dividend as the company has mentioned and a buyback. It is coming in Q4… UBS thoughts below:

TF1 Upgraded to Buy at UBS on Improving French Ad Trends

TF1 ad trends “less bad,” with recent UBS survey showing French TV ads stronger than anticipated at -2% in 3Q, raises to buy from neutral, lifts PT to EU13.30 from EU12.30.

UBS says survey results suggest S/T positivity; decline is less than before, will lead to positive investor sentiment

Shares have underperformed mkt by 28% YTD; upgrades to buy on this weakness

 

THE TF1 WAR CHEST SWELLS AND LES BLEUS MARCH ON

Wednesday • 02 July 2014 • 17:01

Audience numbers fell slightly in May. However the World Cup boost is coming and will put Q2 numbers on a sure footing.

The world cup so far has generated record audiences as the French march on.

During the last World Cup in 2010, TF1 started the year in similar fashion. Down 10.6% from year start to World cup start and went on to return 17% to year end. 2014 YTD down 13.5%.

Net cash can now be estimated at € 540 million and expected to grow to a billion in a year.(Sale of American discovery/51% sale of Eurosport so far. They have an option to sell the remaining 49% from mid-2015).

Acquisitions are in sight as the war chest will be used.

Expected acquisitions are in content (content is king as shown with ITV) and digital where they will look for targets to produce strong margins to replace the profitable Eurosport.

Returning cash to shareholders has also been promised. A share buyback or a special dividend is on the way.

French economy bottoming and macro structural change is coming.

We also expect a gradual recovery in the advertising market. 12 has been a good technical level to Buy with numerous catalysts on the horizon.

Looking for a PT:15 €.