CLOSING: SWATCH

Closing SHORT +11.3%

Closing SHORT +11.33%

 

  • One we will re visit but Swiss watch data for September was fine. Time for a technical bounce
  • MT still see them as a company in denial. The ongoing threat of the smart watch and that they are no longer an organic growth company will continue to weigh
  • Still loved by analysts for the organic growth=dreaming
  • Taking profit will look to re-short bientot

 

Fri, 19 Sep 2014 07:58

Still has 56% Buys,35% Holds and 9% Sells(-)

 

*Optimism For Watch Industry Below Previous Years: Deloitte

*Deloitte: 44% of Watch Execs. See Smartwatch As Next Big Thing

*Swiss Watch Exports Fell Last Month, Ending Recovery: BI Chart

 

  • More negative news yesterday
  • Start of the D/G cycle for me as Barclays reduce PT to 565 vs 600 CHF and Stay Overweight  this morning
  • The HK numbers where poor and it’s their biggest market
  • They are no longer a growth company and the street is banking on organic growth=dreaming
  • Still has 56% Buys/35% Holds and 9% Sells
  • One to stay short add on any bounces

 

 Wed, 17 Sep 2014 08:56

 

Richemont numbers miss. Sales light. Talking down demand in Europe & Asia. Jewellery & watches weak Bought into numbers yesterday as was swatch to an extent. Few recent articles talking them both up. Negative read for swatch whose business mix is not as good as CFR. Keep selling swatch on back of inventory/smart watch and management denial.

 

 

Smartwatches may comprise 40% of wrist devices by 2016: Gartner

  • Release of Apple Watch next year will trigger greater consumer interest in the market
  • Gartner says Apple Watch will probably attract many users despite comparatively high pricing due to its design and user interface
  • Supply chain advantages mean Chinese vendors likely to sell Android Wear based smartwatches at very affordable prices
  • By 2015, Android Wear smartwatches will probably retail at avg of $150

 

Tue, 09 Sep 2014 16:11

Trading short into tonight’s Apple event

 

  • Swiss watch industry post an iWatch launch is compared to Blackberry’s demise, post the Apple iPhone introduction. Jonathan Ive, chief designer at Apple according to the NY Times
  • Bold statement and a lot has been made of this in relation to Swatch. There is no doubt it will have an effect if they get it right. Apple has a massive following and a great track record at getting things right
  • Until recently Swatch have been in denial stating that the iwatch will have no effect on sales
  • Swatch have finally reacted with talk of a fitness function. Too little too late in an area they have spent no money and have limited if any expertise
  • Apple has employed world class big names to work on the iWatch:

-Marc Newson Designer

-Burberry chief executive Angela Ahrendts

-Yves Saint Laurent’s Paul Deneve

-Nike’s Ben Shaffer

  • So far Swatch has de rated more on poor earnings momentum. This is more on China sales and inventory issues which are set to continue.
  • Now is the time of the iWatch
  • Trading Short into tonight’s Apple event