CLOSING ING vs KBC

BOOKING PROFIT OF +6.12%

Has been a dead trade for us as ING outperformance has not materialised.

We are not sure what is causing KBC weakness today but using this opportunity to close the trade as ING outperforms.

 

Friday • 09 January 2015 • 14:32

Good numbers for us. They have delivered. NIMS looks better than cons. Reduced Russian exposure(reduced by 2bn)

The key for us was always the dividend. They have beaten expectations by re instated the dividend for 2014. Big surprise and very +ve. This will not only be rewarded by the mkt in general as we have seen with ISP yesterday but also income funds who will now be able to invest in them

Looking for the spread to outperfrom and see ING testing 12 EUR

 

NUMBERS TOMORROW

Tuesday • 10 February 2015 • 16:06

ING is a name we like stand alone.

One of our key bull points was an expectation of good earning growth(cons look beatable) and this leading to dividend resumption.

Any positive divi changes are being rewarded as seen with ISP today.

Focus tomorrow will be on capital and any positive noises around dividend payments.Currently guiding for 40% for 2015.

We stay long the spread into tomorrow as a key bull catalyst.

 

Long ING, Short KBC

Friday • 09 January 2015 • 14:32

Like this spread from a chart perspective and fundamentally

ing

KBC is fully valued and has limited upcoming catalysts

ING has been unjustly hit on Russian exposure. However they have limited ruble exposure as most loans are in USD and EUR and the loan book is high quality corporate

ING Results 11th Feb to be a positive catalyst

Most of the restructuring is done which many will see as the end of the road for positive self help catalysts. The IPO of NN Group was the final major step in the restructuring plan

However importantly due to the restructuring and disposals they have now payed back the last tranche of state aid. This opens up the resuming of dividend payments in 2015

We expect to see good earnings growth and potential dividend resumption as positive catalysts at the upcoming numbers

Looking for 10% on the spread (0.25 on the CIX)