CLOSING: COMMERZBANK

CLOSINFG LONG TODAY, HAD SOME GREAT TIMES BUT THAT'S THE END FOR NOW

Numbers where poor and although not loved by analysts could well be dead money for now.

Still relatively well owned especially by the hedgies.

However I still think the sale of the Spanish loans is a ST positive. Talk of 4 interested parties looking at a 4-5bn and a bid expected within 4 weeks. Having said that its not enough to keep us interested so for now so we will book the 19% profit and move on.

 

NPL THE NEXT CATALYST FOR CBK?

Monday • 07 April 2014 • 14:20

There is an increased appetite for NPL assets in Europe currently as highlighted last week with NAMA’s divestment of its entire Northern Ireland exposure to Cerbrus in a massive EUR5.5bn deal.

Recent stories such as PIMCO having approached NAMA to acquire their remaining portfolio shows the current appetite for European distressed assets.

CBK has one of the largest NPL portfolios in Europe, and is sure to benefit from a better bid in the space.

Still trades well below BV and is one of the cheapest banks in Europe. Stay Long or use weakness to add.

 

Thursday • 13 February 2014 • 07:55

CBK good performance this morning, all going in the right direction. NCA portfolio reductions will be helpful and key to the story. Op profit better/costs are flat but better than expectations and this was another area where people where concerned going into numbers. Net income of Eur64m alot better than consensus and capital was also +VE.

Still since the +35% move from last November there are 17% buy, 50% hold, 33% sell recommendations from analysts. Comedy bank not so funny anymore. Pain trade still up, called up 2-4%.

 

Tuesday • 26 November 2013 • 09:13

More +ve news for CBK this morning:

HSH Nordbank’s risk provisions to drop to “significantly below” EU1b in 2014 following ~EU1.3b in 2013.

 

TIME TO BUY FOR THE LONG-TERM

Thursday • 21 November 2013 • 13:54

I don’t really understand why people are willing to buy distressed banks in Europe with weak economies behind them but have no interest in one with a world power behind it…

Leveraged into German domestic demand which from todays PMI shows that domestic demand might take over from exports as a driver.

It is one of the cheapest Banks in Europe,cheap on book multiples.

Disliked for numerous reasons which seem to be harder to justify (shipping/capital/Europe).

The restructuring story is taking place and expecting some form of updates on from the company in February..

Good noises today from manager magazin on their “bad bank” the non-core assets unit.

They own a Polish bank called BRE PW (third of CBKs mkt cap) which is flying and part of the country with europes fastest growing GDP.

Recent ongoing articles in the WSJ and Barrons on Europe with titles such as Is Europe in your plans. Europeans may dislike them but the Americans may look at them differently.

Positioning is a big point with 17% Buys 51% holds and 31% Sells so still very well hated!