Since 2009 rising corporate bond prices, driven in part by falling risk-free interest rates as well as shrinking default premiums, mean corporate cashflows have been discounted at lower and lower rates. In other words, corporate cashflows have been valued at higher and higher PE ratios. Any company that has demonstrated consistent earnings growth has seen…
Reopening a short 2014 EBIT consensus is too high at CHF1.97bn – could come down to c.CHF1.75 according to Mainfirst One of our original arguments was that consensus was too high Analysts still love them and expect organic growth. I think they are dreaming Apple watch is not far away and will have a…
Had a great and deserved run as played catch up vs the sector recently. We will take some profit off the table. They are still our top pick for 2015. Q4 will see them as cash positive. The ongoing restructuring through the back to the race plan gives them a lot of levers to pull….
Personally I can’t see tomorrow being anything but dovish. Like most I don’t see them doing anything tomorrow but the macro recently especially inflation expectations are helping Mario’s cause. The rhetoric will continue insinuating government bond purchases as well as other non-standard measures. Even if people decide by him not actually acting tomorrow it is…
TRADER MARKET VIEW +ve MKTs into ECB Focus on commod/oil sell off but quietly starting to see a real move in the peripheral banks here as well. Spain and Italy at/near highs of the day. Cheaper oil and input prices so more money for consumers. Granted more chance of deflation but means more chance…
ENEL is back in territory to get short. Missed it earlier this week but the government placing is coming. *ITALY MAY SELL 5-6% OF ENEL IN 1ST HALF OF DEC.: SOL
Interesting note from Exane today. Looking at Adidas from a deep value perspective and re pushing their recent M&A note. Net net the company now looks vunerable to corporate activists. Worst case is disposal of brands and best case a full bid for the company. POST NUMBERS Thursday • 06 November 2014 • 10:59…
Supportive sales, China blow out European cars released yesterday show sales were up 6.2% in Oct for the 14th straight gain Peugeot European sales rose 1.1% YoY with YTD vehicle sales up 5% to 2.43m Most notable was UG’s China sales which rose a meagre 31% in October to 63.8K units! This will be…
Goldman upgrade Pirelli to Buy on the back of its resilient earnings growth in the context of a challenging market environment. We believe the successful execution of Pirelli’s premium strategy, and thus continued delivery of solid earnings growth, should drive a re-rating. 12-month share PT EUR13.5 Friday • 07 November 2014 • 09:47 At…
At a high level Pirelli numbers are a little disappointing: high margin premium tyre sales are booming (+17% yoy in Q3) yet total company operating margins are slightly down year over year. Within that consumer tyre margins are up 40bps to 14.2% while industrial (truck) tyre margins are down 350bps to 12.3%. So there…