Secret PM

CLOSING FIAT CHRYSLER

CLOSING FOR +15.10%

We are happy to close this trade after 5 days and +15.10% return. With potential UAW strike in the background and post strong recent move we are booking profit. We still like the name for various reasons cited in our original idea, and we look to re-enter on any decent pull-back. See original idea for more details….

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FIAT CHRYSLER: BUY

BUYING INTO FERRARI IPO

The rationale for this trade is not new. The Ferrari IPO process is rumoured to be starting on Friday which should refocus the market on the SOTP angle. It remains to be seen how much they are able to raise, but anywhere near the 10bn EUR rumoured and at these levels you are getting the…

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UPDATE: WOLSELEY

REITERATION BUY POST SELL OFF

Yesterday Wolseley’s stock fell 12% on earnings release which were good, however the US growth, or lack thereof, shook the investors’ confidence. We still see Wolseley as a strong company and we believe that the company still has a great value and potential to grow. The US and UK housing markets are still strong, and…

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LONG AIR VS. SAF

DISLOCATION CREATED BY EUROSTOXX AND CAC RE-WEIGHT

This trade is on the out performance of Safran on back of the EUROSTOXX and CAC re weight (effective close 18th Septemeber). As Airbus and the market has sold off Safran has outperformed due to the buying pressure. According to JPM the buying pressure was 8.83 days of volume or 958mn USD. There are no…

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THE SECRET PM: BUY FOX

WITH CORPORATE BOND YIELDS AT 5% FOX's SHARE CAN EASILY DOUBLE

US TV and media content producers have suffered tremendous de-ratings over the past year. And in particular since Disney results in August, which showed a drop in pay-TV subscribers. Viacom, for example, which has delivered free cash flow of nearly $2.5bn during each of the past four years fell to a market cap of about…

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SABMILLER: BUY

TRADING CALL

I think it will be about 43 for a friendly deal to get done so should trade around 39 ish… Definitely worth keeping some/being long via options or cash…Some decent upside still. Looking for 8-10%return.

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UPDATE: VW

VW COULD FACE $18BN IN FINES FROM EPA

Closing long on EPA violation. $18bn would be EUR 30 per share. Not going to help the image and sentiment. We close for a loss -23.9%.   2Q EARNINGS RELIEF ON THE WAY! Tuesday • 16 June 2015 • 15:52 China has been a well known issue for the autos. With over 40% of profits…

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UPDATE: TELCOS POST FED

ADD TO KPN AND ORANGE

On the back of the FED would be happy adding to our Telco longs here. They have 100% European focus and no EURO currency issues. In a continued low rate environment they provide attractive yields. KPN: Fundamentally we like this stock given its 100% European exposure and it has improving operational momentum. See more thoughts…

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UPDATE: THE SECRET PM

ADIDAS An Adidas investment is built on the prospect for margin expansion. Despite similar gross profit margins to Nike, adidas has reported operating margins averaging 7.5% over the past 5 years versus Nike’s 13%. This shows up in their relative valuations: 1x EV/sales for adidas compared to 3.5x for Nike. Sure, Nike has some enduring…

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UPDATE: EON

CLOSING EON FOR -18.1% LOSS

E.ON has announced a change in its spin-off structure which will now see its nuclear assets remaining within E.ON as opposed to being allocated to Uniper as previously planned. The change in asset allocation is a response to the proposed German law which would see E.ON liable for nuclear provisions even if allocated to an independent Uniper. E.ON along…

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