Personally I don’t think tomorrows numbers from Tesco will really change the debate. Both were pricing in margins that were too low. This quarter will provide evidence that they were too low. But upside from here requires you being comfortable modelling margins through 3% and given Aldi’s comments recently and Amazon coming into the market…
Now on less than 5.5x 2017 EBITDA vs sector on ~6.5x that’s close to a 25% discount although has superior growth. Some of that discount is the state ownership and rightly so given intervention in the recent consolidation talks. However assuming price rationality from competitors going forward this is a good entry point. The concern…
We have run UG since February 2014 as the investment case became compelling. We have watched them go from being unprofitable to making 5% margins. The 2016-2018 targets of 4% therefore means that while probably low balling on company guidance margins have peaked until 2020. The easy money has been made. From here growth will…
Vol is too low here. Suppressed to a level not seen since last October. This is where it averaged through most of the 3% range the S&P enjoyed through H1 last year. This was however thanks to a combination of an easing of pressure points (data, China, commods) and renewed dovishness from CB’s. We argue…
We love NIKE as a company. We have only ever worn Nike gear for the last 25 years and that will never change. It is the only sports brand for us. This was purely a trading call as we felt that the tailwinds where already aggressively priced into the stock after the recent run up….
We love the brand and believe in the LT NIKE story. For us the future is brands like NIKE as sports apparel becomes a part of everyday wardrobes. Nike will continue to benefit from the secular tailwinds in fitness spaces and everyday wear. However we feel that the stock going into these numbers is priced…
From a top down view, and since mid-2014, the main challenge for an equity investor is the ultra-low level of government bond yields or risk-free rates. Low risk-free rates translate into low corporate bond yields – long dated corporate cash flows are currently discounted at 4.98% – which is the equivalent of a stock valuation…
HSBC HSBC is a long term investment – in 5 years or perhaps longer we will know how good the investment has been. The central thesis is that every profit line at HSBC has been hit over the past 10 years. Regulation has hurt the fee earning businesses as card swipe fees have been regulated…
On an easy comp the Kantar print for MRW comes in at -4.4% which should take some of the wind out of its sales post the Amazon deal and the FTSE inclusion. We continue to think the Amazon deal is an overall negative for the industry and does not preclude the other food retail names…
This trade has played out quicker than we anticipated. So running into ECB and unknowns around further deposit rate cuts we are happy to lock in the performance and revisit at a later stage. Booking a +12.87% profit. COMMERZBANK: BUY MASSIVE POSITIVE SURPRISE; TRADING AT 0.3x P/B Friday • 12 February 2016 • 09:12…