Sandvik’s capital markets day passed without event and puts the short case back into play. Instead of extensive portfolio restructuring that the market wanted we got a reshuffle and no sale of SMT. We got 2018 guidance that aims for margin improvement to 15% through cycle (which won’t be an easy task) and we still…
Closing trade as we feel a lot of the bad news is in the price and €6 has proved to be a decent floor medium term. We are closing here for +10.66% and will look to re short around the €7 level. IT’S NOT JUST PAPER MONEY Tuesday • 03 May 2016 • 13:10…
Trading on a sector multiple for above sector average growth following 4 consecutive quarters of improvement. Importantly the under-performance in Germany vs DT has now been eliminated, a key source of uncertainty over recent quarters. The mid term targets put it somewhere somewhere between 5 and 10% EBITDA growth with a fully covered dividend or…
I think SAB is a buy here as well it is the most compelling risk arb trade out there. Trading at a 5/6% discount and you collect the dividend as an added sweeter if they don’t complete the deal by 11th August,you get the dividend. We have done extensive work on the anti trust issues…
A lot of technical selling yesterday related to the tender arbitrage; by tendering your Baxter stock you get BXLT aprrox. 7% cheaper (VWAP period from yesterday to Monday). That put pressure on the spread. However, they are only issuing 13.7m shares, and as a result allocations are likely to be light and flowback minimal. And…
A number of reasons to be short this one: Momentum is slowing. Organic growth of 1.8% in Q1 compares to 7.2% Q1 2015, and 2% last quarter. The US (60% of the biz) is clearly in a mess (see GAP warning and MACYs today) and unseasonal weather continues which is likely to make revenue growth…
A favourite amongst auto analysts due to its restructuring potential and ‘cheap’ p/e multiple. But at this stage in the cycle, how much is left to play for? Arguably the near term restructuring angle is played out post Ferrari spin off. Part of the reason FCA has held up so well was an expectation of…
Very first take a miss across Luxury at 2.6% vs 5% cons, with GUCCI +3.1% vs cons of about 5% on easy (-7.6%) comps and a slowdown vs the 4.7% printed last quarter. Total revs a 2.5% miss, saved by a strong showing from Puma, but that won’t be a surprise given what we have…
Kering has participated in this broader China rally, up almost 10% since LVMH confirmed that FLG growth was actually 2% without some discontinued items. Expectations are quite high for KER. Following the Gucci relaunch in Q3 last year and a 4.8% growth print the market is going for another 5% this quarter. This is on…
Housing data was rather disappointing. Building permits for the US Single family homes – representing the biggest part of the housing market – showed a slowdown. Building permits declined by -7.7% last month, and Housing Starts declined by -8.8% last month. As permits serve as proxy for future construction, it seems that there is a…