LUX reported Q3 number yesterday after close. Numbers were in line across the board, and the management confirmed the outlook for 2016 but did not give any medium term outlook. This has been taken well as many including us were looking for a miss. The sector is having a mini renaissance post good LVMH numbers….
We put Long VXX idea on March 30, and since then VXX fell -56% vs VIX Index which is up +70% in the same time period. We have experienced only the downside where VXX followed VIX down, and zero upside. Best example of discorrelation is the performance from march 30 – June 24: VIX rose…
We believe the risk reward is compelling to stay short into numbers tomorrow. To move the needle to the upside they will need to come up with some special numbers. Pretty much priced to perfection. Senior and Michelin both talking down trucks overnight and there will be a hit from rising raw material prices (steel)….
We feel it is right to sell Adidas and shift the capital into better opportunities. Although the market overall has been broadly flat for 2 years there have been and we feel there still are lots of opportunities within that. It has been a great trade for our Secret PM product. Trade was initiated October…
Reuters reported that German government put out a draft law (expected to be approved on October 19th – next Wednesday) in which it states that nuclear operators will transfer 23.5B EUR for the nuclear fuel liabilities. This is a positive read for our LONGS in RWE and EON as this equates to 1.5B EUR less…
We are initiating a position today on the back of continuing diverging trends in the two names. This is the start of their product cycles diverging. European September car registration numbers out this morning are just the start with PSA numbers -5.8% and Renault dominating with +18.7%. We also expect the YEN to weaken as…
We believe the credit impulse from Chinese policy will slow massively from here to year end. This is coupled with the recent policy to calm the housing market which will also have a negative impact. Miners have got way ahead of commodities fundamentals. Citi downgraded RIO and BHP today as well as mentioned in our…
Several warnings from the US now creating more concerns over the US industrial cycle. Brammers warning also creating some uncertainty on early cycle in Europe. SAND has 50% of its EBITDA exposed to early cycle in Europe and the US (and automotive likely to be the weak point), but this is being largely ignored thanks…
German power prices racing to the highs here following coal and carbon prices. EON has been an absolute dog since the spin off 5x leverage bites and the market is waiting for a rights issue. That is the risky one, but worth a punt at these levels. RWE is more leveraged to power prices and…
Today ABI deal has been approved by SAB LN shareholders – 95.46% in faovur (scheme) 97.4% (court). With deal officially approved, we are closing our trading buy for 7.7% profit. LONG SAB TRADING CALL Monday • 23 May 2016 • 11:16 I think SAB is a buy here as well it is the most…