Post emissions scandal investigations from the French government wiping 2.5bn EUR off its market cap we initiated a trading buy. By our calculations the worst case scenario was 350m dent to the mkt cap. We saw this as an opportunity as the mkt was positioned bearishly on the sector and Dec numbers where fantastic. Although…
We advocated selling on the IPO based on valuation, where we thought luxury multiples were inappropriate and organic growth unrealistic to achieve. In the meantime we have been through a period of multiple contraction for luxury names thanks to Chinese, US and tourism weakness. Also fears in the auto space of peak cycle sales and…
UK retailers: Retail Week saying Aldi launching fresh wave of price cuts… UK supermarkets have been very good recently on an unwind predicated on margin improvement. A fresh wave of price cuts would blow this out of the water. Would be selling MRW and TSCO first.
Capital at 12%. No capital worries here as the divi resumes. Non core going the right way and costs flat. Worried about energy? Energy risk below 1% of book value. One to buy today and hold. Unless you think we are going back to mad max times. One of the cheapest stocks in the sector…
In the current market environment, we see +ISP IM / -ISPR IM <5.5% as a good market neutral trade, with attractive risk-rewards potential. We see upside 10-15%, with very limited downside. Conversion speculation has driven the spread for years. Earnings on Friday did not mention anything about a conversion. Since December when the TIT conversion…
KPN formed part of our telco long thesis vs LUX. We still like the stock for its cash return story over the medium term. However until then the stock is looking a little expensive and the results are underwhelming. The developments between VOD & LBTYA in the Netherlands are also unhelpful in the near term….
This morning the daily mail is reporting the CEO is considering selling its consumer healthcare products division. Reckitt Benckiser, Unilever and Procter & Gamble mentioned (Jan. 29) Vague takeover chatter mentioning JNJ as acquirer on twitter. Although we feel this is very spurious it shows the M&A optionality on the name. Added to that you…
Yesterday, RACE released preliminary results showing a big miss in Q4 revenues (€685M vs est. €743M). This is very well possible as Ferrari has been constantly valued at the combination of the luxury goods and luxury cars multiples. On the relative basis we believe that RACE is still overvalued compared to its peers, trading at…
SWATCH +45.54% has been a LT structural short. See full idea at: Swatch RMS +5.3% and MC +4.5% have been shorts as part of our See full idea at: Hermes See full idea at: LVMH TELCO vs LUX trade in Q4 2015 and for the start of 2016 These have been good bears and the…
We went short at the beginning of December based on short cycle weakness in China, ongoing structural mining issues, dislocation vs miners and valuation. After a 20% move lower we feel that the numbers have been de risked and some of these negatives are more appropriately in the price. With the announcement of the new…