Trading near all time highs post an average set of numbers and a big TRUMP rally. We think the move has gone too far. We understand the positive for infrastructure stocks but we feel too much is priced into the stock far too quickly. There is a long way to go for Trumps till we…
Sector has under performed the market ytd due to numerous factors. EU roaming/CAPEX/revenue trends/Rising rates/positioning. We now feel that the sector and especially Vodafone valuation and expectations have re based, we feel the risk reward is now to the upside. The disruptive entry of Jio in India may pressure revenue but it is known by…
FIAT has rallied 37% since the mid summer lows and +17% in the last 6 days. The rally this week has been put down to firstly the €2.87bn mandatory and the $7.08 – $8.32 strike as the terms change and people where over hedged so they have been forced to buy back the stock (don’t…
We are getting a glimpse of the likely Q1 evolution here today in Europe. The confusion is that with a meaningful pullback in bond yields over the last month, the reflation trade has barely lost steam, and with better inflation/PMI prints over the last 2 days, it has restarted aggressively. The point is that there…
Underperformed the sector and we feel unfairly considering fundamentals are solid. MIB and banks in particular have suffered due to the NPL issues and the constitutional reform vote . Numbers will be solid tomorrow and the capital position strong, with CET1 of over 13%. However the real story for us is the yield story. Numbers…
Was a play on the German energy prices surging following coal and carbon prices. The positive news on the Nuclear Liability resolution on October 14th (approved by the Cabinet on October 19) also helped the trade. We have been a touch greedy on this trade knowing the risks associated with it as we believe an…
We are expecting good numbers on the Nov 7 and feel that it would be prudent to close the second half of the position. We had a good run and are booking another +4.75% profit. We are booking total net profit of +15.6%. CLOSING HALF in SHORT RYANAIR +20.3% ABS +18% Rel Tuesday •…
LUX reported Q3 number yesterday after close. Numbers were in line across the board, and the management confirmed the outlook for 2016 but did not give any medium term outlook. This has been taken well as many including us were looking for a miss. The sector is having a mini renaissance post good LVMH numbers….
We put Long VXX idea on March 30, and since then VXX fell -56% vs VIX Index which is up +70% in the same time period. We have experienced only the downside where VXX followed VIX down, and zero upside. Best example of discorrelation is the performance from march 30 – June 24: VIX rose…
We believe the risk reward is compelling to stay short into numbers tomorrow. To move the needle to the upside they will need to come up with some special numbers. Pretty much priced to perfection. Senior and Michelin both talking down trucks overnight and there will be a hit from rising raw material prices (steel)….