CLOSING ATOS

HITTING RESISTANCE LEVEL; +12.5% RETURN

We are closing ATOS as we feel technically it will struggle to break through 70 . This has proved to be a top numerous times in 2015.

There are many positives still to come for ATOS.

Cybersecurity, Xerox synergies and the well known drivers of big data, cloud and electronic payment systems.

However we use the current strength to take profit of 12.50%.

 

CYBERSECURITY AS VALUATION GAP STARTS TO DIMINISH


Wednesday • 18 February 2015 • 17:52


Cheap to peers. Underperformed Cap Gemini by 0ver 20% in the last year.

Last year they bought Xerox’s IT Outsourcing Business. Atos will triple in size its US footprint.

Earning’s from Bull will stabilise and Xerox aquisition synergies will pay in H2 2015.

Well known growth drivers are big data, cloud and electronic payment systems. We also expect cybersecurity to be a big theme for 2015.

Stay long as numbers tomorrow will start to process of the valuation gap diminishing.

ATOS to Buy Xerox’s IT Outsourcing Business for $1.05b

Atos will triple in size in the US with the acquisition of Xerox ITO

Atos trades at a 30-40% discount to peers. Which is unjustified to us. Trades on 10 times 2015 earnings

According to Mainfirst its a great deal with good price ev/sales @ 0.7x with healthy 8% margins! Deal Q2’15 and will be 10% accretive in first year

They expect 10-15% upgrades

We are still looking for EUR73-EUR75

 

UNDERVALUED UNLOVED… INE FOR 2014


Thursday • 27 March • 2014


Atos exits U.K. government WCA contract early after settlement (small +ve)

It was a loss making contract so positive news. No timing or further details given

Atos is still undervalued vs peers and while comps are lacking a catalyst the Worldline IPO is  coming soon for Atos

Further positive news for Worldline today with announcement of a partnership with Yapital

Worldline continues on its way to becoming the Standard at Point Of Sale and continuing and improving its leadership in e-payment transactional services pre the IPO (Press release)

Stay long, we are looking for EUR73-EUR75 post IPO

 

COMMENT ON EARNINGS: KEEP ADDING



Poor topline numbers from ATOS this morning however looking further out the progression is there

This weakness is another chance to get long with management confirming the worldline IPO this year and there foothold in payments where M&A is likely also this year…keep adding

Undervalued unloved… One for 2014

 


Thursday • 19 December 2013 • 15:27


Compelling three-year plan starting 2014

Balance sheet improvements with early redemption of convertible and settlement of the Dutch Pensions

Recently won IT services provision contract for the Olympic Games until 2024

The big catalyst for 2014 is the World Wide IPO

Positive X-Read +ve from the Accenture call “We’re seeing signs of momentum across our businesses ..and a very healthy pipeline”

Cheap to peers Cap and Accenture see attached Grab….

Looking for EUR70-EUR75 at least

atos vs cap